O mercado importador de vinho americano

Apesar de longo e em inglês, vou reproduzir o artigo sobre as dificuldades para vinhos estrangeiros entrarem nos Estados. O pessoal que trabalha com exportação pode tirar boas informações. Ei-lo:


In 2008 we already began to witness very minor quarterly growth in wine exports to the US by the Top Ten exporting countries. 1Q 2008 showed a small decline of U$ -5.6 million in value vs. 1Q 2007 ($1.140B vs $1.145B). 2Q 2008 was a lackluster 1.4% higher than 2Q 2007 ($1.254B vs $1.236B). 3Q 2008 grew a modest 1.7% over 3Q 2007 ($1.380B vs $1.357B), and during 4Q 2008 the Top Ten exported U$ -137 million less than in 2007 ($1.424B vs $1.561B). Sales were off U$ -81 million in all of 2008 ($ 5.219 billion in 2008 vs. $ 5.3 billion in 2007). Volume exports were also down slightly (-1.3%) from 880 million liters in 2007 to 869 million liters in 2008.Following the a. economic crisis that began in the last quarter of 2008 and b. the continuing devaluation of the US dollar versus the Euro, a major shift in marketing strategies and US wine consumption (worldwide, actually) has taken place in 2009. Even the big boys have been affected, as Diageo announced they were pulling out of Bordeaux. For the first time, several US national importers (some of them, at least temporarily) are looking to South America to replace their declining sales of European wine sales in the United States. William Deutsch (importer/partner of Yellow Tail) announced this week their incursion into Latin America by joining forces with a Chilean partner (Corpora SA of Bio Bio) and deciding to import Chardonnay and Pinot Noir from Chile and Malbec from Patagonia (Argentina). Terlato Imports has purchased shares in one of CHILE´s largest producers, the Luksic Group. They already own Tarapacá in CHILE and Tamarí in ARGENTINA. Another famous importer group has decided to launch a world brand with several varietals (including Malbec) in order to minimize their losses from European sales. Month by month 2009, the Top Ten have been averaging $80-90 million less in exports by value over the previous same-month figures in 2008. It is projected that for all of 2009 the Top Ten will have exported U$ 1.000.000.000 less than in 2008. Calendar 2009 exports are forecasted to finish at U$4.2 billion vs. U$ 5.2 billion in 2008. For the first time in history, the US will import more than 100 million cases from the Top Ten wine exporting countries. Volume exports by the Top Ten in 2009 will exceed 950 million liters, or 106 million cases, up 9.3% from 869 million in 2008. The biggest growth in liter exports will be reported by CHILE: 100% from 67 million liters in 2008 to 135 million liters in 2009. Another first: AUSTRALIA will have exported in 2009 more liters exported to the US than ITALY: 240 million liters vs. 215 million for ITALY. The Old World has shown escalating quarterly US export declines by value in 2009, due to the world economic crisis and the appreciation of the Euro. FRANCE leads the way with quarterly declines of 1Q -27%, 2Q – 32.1%, 3Q -34-6%. FRANCE will have exported U$ 650 million less in all of 2009. FRANCE will finish 2009 with exports of approx. U$ 1.45 billion. ITALY´s declines were not so precipitous as FRANCE´s but will still manage to close 2009 down U$ 170 million. They will finish 2009 with approx. U$ 1.14 billion Their quarterly results are 1Q: -13.4%, 2Q: -20.7%, 3Q: -8.2%. SPAIN also suffered double-digit losses with declines of 1Q: -25%, 2Q: -13.0%, 3Q: -16-9%. Expect SPAIN to finish 2009 with exports of U$245 million to the US, down U$ 50 million from their annual record high of 295 million in 2008. GERMANY is the 2nd hardest hit of all the European exporters with a 3Q Y-T-D drop of -21%. Their quarterly results: 1Q: -23-6%, 2Q: -18.8%, 3Q: -21.8%. GERMANY will export U$ 120 million to the US in all of 2009, down U$ 28 million from their all time high of U$ 148 million in 2008. PORTUGAL mitigates their losses every quarter but will still be down in double digits for all of 2009. Their quarterly results: 1Q: -19.6%, 2Q: -11.8%, 3Q: -7.4%. PORTUGAL will close 2009 with U$ 60 million, their lowest since 2004. They are down U$9 million from U$69 million in 2008 and down U$12 million from U$ 72 million in 2007.For the first time in six years the average import price per liter in 2009 is under U$ 5.00. In 3Q Y-T-D 2009 the average price per liter was U$ 4.70, down -27.6% from U$ 6.40 in 3Q Y-T-D 2008 . The 2009 results by quarter: 1Q: U$ 4.34, 2Q: U$ 4.66, 3Q: U$ 5.09.The New World fared somewhat better with ARGENTINA leading the way with a 3Q Y-T-D value growth of 31.5%. However, for the first time in more than two years ARGENTINA´s monthly export total of U$ 19 million in October 09 was U$ 4 million less than the U$ 23 million reported in October 08, a -17.2% reduction. November 09 also finished U$ 4 million lower than November 08 (from U$ 20M in ´08 to U$ 16M in ´09), a drop of -20%. We hope this is just a “blip” in their export numbers. ARGENTINA will still close out the year with record results and exceed U$ 200 million in exports to the US for the first time. They are expected to finish at U$ 210 million for 2009, a 14.7% increase over U$ 183M of 2008. ARGENTINA may not surpass their record export of 79 million liters to the US in all of 2009. They will be close to that amount. They should average U$25.20 per 9-liter case (including BTW, without BTW it´s U$32).Part of the reason for the deceleration of Argentine growth may be attributed to CHILE´s flooding of the US market with Bulk Table Wine shipments. CHILE has exported 105 million liters and is projected to end the year 2009 with 135 million liters shipped (15 million cases), 100% more than the 67 million liters they shipped in 2008. They have surpassed FRANCE in number of liters shipped and are now in 3rd place behind AUSTRALIA and ITALY. In value they will ship close to U$ 280 million in 2009. In bottled wine shipments CHILE exported 7.750 million cases to the US in 2008. For the first six months of 2009 they exported 3.539.578 cases of bottled table wine valued at U$ 28.01 per case for a total of U$ 99.143.580. This is an increase of 19% over last year. If we apply the same percentage increase of 19% to the 7.750.000 cases of bottled table wine they shipped to the US all of last year, we can conservatively forecast that CHILE will export at least 9.000.000 cases of bottled table wine valued at U$ 252.090.000 for all of 2009. Therefore, CHILE will ship 6.0 million cases in Bulk Table Wine …up from 700.000 cases of BTW in 2008. In 2008, CHILE averaged U$ 0.74 per liter in BTW. In 2009, at this same bulk price, CHILE will export 6.0M cases (15M cases total minus 9.0M cases of bottled wine) x $6.66/case equivalent = U$ 39.960.000, a record in BTW shipments to the US. ARGENTINA continues to move in opposite direction. They will export less total liters than they did last year (2008) and have now increased their average per case of bottled wine price to U$32. ARGENTINA will ship roughly 5.850.000 cases of bottled wine in 2009 and 3.058.000 cases in BTW, a reduction of more than 1.400.000 cases of BTW from last year´s total of 4.446.000 case equivalents of BTW. It will be interesting to watch which country strategy (ARGENTINA´S or CHILE´s) is more effective. AUSTRALIA was a major exporter of BTW to the US a few years ago…and it is probably one of the reasons their image of making fine wine has been tarnished in the eyes of the American consumer. Yellow Tail still accounts for half of AUSTRALIA´s exports to the US. ARGENTINA would like to disassociate their Malbec and other wines from this low-end category and try to present Malbec as a true quality wine, not just another FLAVOR OF THE MONTH. It tries to avoid the Australian experience with Shiraz, whose sales are now associated with “cheap popular wines” in the US. Aussie ultra-premium wines are just not moving. No one who wants to show off his/her “discovery” with guests would bring an everyday wine such as Yellow Tail to a party. The giants Gallo, Constellation, and The Wine Group flooded the off-trade with 36 new popular brands in 2007 and several dozen more in 2008. In less than three years, the sales of the “Barefoot” brand (Gallo) grew to 4 million cases a year. This is formidable competition. Fifty percent of all wine consumption (150 million cases) in the US is owned by these three groups. Malbec still ranks 15th in the case rankings by varietal. Last year the off-trade sold 273.000 cases of Malbec and this year we can assume the sale of Malbec will exceed 350.000 cases in supermarkets and specialty wine shops. This is still a long way from the 19 million cases of Chardonnay or the 12 million cases of Cabernet Sauvignon, or the 5.5 million cases of Merlot sold in the US. Even Pinot Grigio exceeds 3.5 million cases. The American consumer still associates quality, sophistication, savoir-faire, “cachet”, refinement, etc. with anything French. If he/she purchases a U$50 bottle of wine for a “special occasion” it will most likely be French or Californian (since California beat the French at the “Judgement of Paris” of 1976) rather than a “blending grape” used to make French Cabernet Sauvignon. If price/quality ratios in ARGENTINA and CHILE remain under control, continued flight to this New World quality is inevitable. It´s impossible to compete with the New World at those prices. This is why one third of all wine consumption in the world´s 4th wine producing country consists of imported wine (with the New World accounting for more than 50% in volume of exports to the US). The NW will continue to experience sustained growth. The trend, however, is to remain in the “popular” category, as giant importers such as William Deustch enter the fray with their U$12.99 offerings. The world economic crisis caused the paradigms of consumption to shift in the US in 2009. Look for the Grand Crus of FRANCE and the Super Tuscans of ITALY to focus on the Asian market, already a larger wine importer than the United States. ARGENTINA appears to have made all the right initial moves: 1) major Argentine investments in land and wineries by many of the top French, Swiss, Spanish & Italian groups totaling more than U$1.2 billion dollars, 2) adoption of the latest technology, 3) utilization of world-renown winemakers, 4) Argentine government support in promoting Argentina and its wines, 5) obtained favorable ratings from the world´s top wine critics, 6) produced excellent wines in all categories. What is lacking is 1) more professional public relations, 2) better relationships with national importers, 3) a better understanding of the 2 and 3-tier systems of distribution, 4) more collaboration and interaction between Argentine government officials and senior distribution companies in the US, 5) serious focused promotion of other Argentine varietals, not just Torrontés, which only has ten producers in Salta that produce a total of 800.000 cases. In a very short time the Prosecco sparkling was positioned all over America, similar to how young Beaujolais was positioned a few years ago. It was a major national campaign that reached every market in the US. One of several regional public relations experts charged U$12.000 per month for the promotion of Prosecco. The PR folks were Americans, not just local government officials looking for that annual “freebie” trip to the US to set up tables at a trade show. ARGENTINA should learn more about these promotional activities in the US.What happens if tomorrow Malbec is no longer the “flavor of the month”? What will ARGENTINA do? If they reduce their participation in BTW market, how will they continue? AUSTRALIA makes excellent Cabernet Sauvignon, Mourvedre, Grenache, Chardonnay, yet these Aussie varietals are hardly known in the US. AUSTRALIA is the largest exporter to the US of bottled dessert wines with more than 1.3 million cases exported annually, more than ITALY, SPAIN, and PORTUGAL combined. One in ten thousand may know that. Should ARGENTINA go for broke and continue to focus only on the sale of Malbec without any contingent strategy? How are the other Argentine varietals faring in the US? Is there sustained growth? What percentage increase or decrease? If you asked any consumer to name an Argentine producer one out of 100 may say CATENA (since Gallo now distributes Catena´s low-end wines). There simply is no Argentine brand recognition. Catena spends millions in advertising and promotion. What will it take for the 350 producers, who now export 1.400 labels to the US, to get their brand known? ARGENTINA at least has its own signature varietal (Malbec). No one can pronounce the Chilean varietal Carmenére. This is a distinct advantage that must be exploited properly.In spite of all its weather problems, some difficulties encountered by some of its giant players such as Constellation and Foster´s, an important reduction in their price per liter exported to the US, AUSTRALIA remains a formidable exporter, who will ship a record (for them) 240 million liters to the US in 2009. They are expected to come in at U$ 640 million in value, off -7.9% from U$ 694.641.664 in 2008. Per liter will be approx U$ 2.66 down -32.1% from the U$3.91 reported in 2007 and down -26.4% from U$ 3.61 reported in 2008. The most volume of wine exported to the US by any country in a given year was Italy´s 258.575.280 liters exported in 2007. It will be interesting to see who is the first country to export 30 million cases (270 million liters) to the US in a given year.SOUTH AFRICA is difficult to predict, as their numbers vary widely month to month. In 2008 they exported 16.210.123 liters valued at U$ 44.549.026 (U$ 2.75 per liter). 7.776.900 of those liters (48% of the total liters shipped) was Bulk Table Wine valued at U$ 5.494.000 (U$0.71 per liter). In 2009, for the first 10 months, SOUTH AFRICA exported 11.993.007 liters valued at U$ 31.506.630 (U$2.63 per liter). Assuming November and December are the same as last year in volume (2.246.852 liters and 1942.397 liters, respectively) and in value (U$3.930.441 and U$ 3.791.062, respectively), SOUTH AFRICA would export 16.182.166 liters valued at U$ 39.228.133 for an average liter price of U$ 2.42 per liter. The number of liters annually remains the same, but the cost per liter has gone down -12%, which would suppose that there is an increase in BTW shipments to more than 50% of their total.In 2009, NEW ZEALAND will pass the 20 million liter annual US wine export mark for the first time in its history, closing at approx. 22.100.000 liters up 12% over last year´s 19.662, 551 liters. They will most likely surpass their value record of U$ 145.849.656 in 2008 and end up with U$ 152 million in all of 2009, assuming conservatively that this year´s November and December show no growth over last year´s Nov and Dec. Their average price per liter of slightly under U$7.00 has always been the most consistent in the industry.(Source: US Customs)

Victor C. Honoré